tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24766932.post1969431277362516261..comments2023-02-17T14:59:05.164ZComments on The Jacksonian Party: Afghanistan and the essential fightA Jacksonianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07607888697879327120noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24766932.post-64881092435148339262009-02-10T22:52:00.000Z2009-02-10T22:52:00.000ZThe complexity of Afghanistan falls into a few maj...The complexity of Afghanistan falls into a few major areas: supply, ISI backed terrorism, narcotics money, and tribalism. Each of these has their own vectors and need to be addressed as part of any larger scale solution via COIN. Much can be done with the route we were going during late 2008, but those reach limitations for Western conceptions of an end to the war there due to the previously mentioned vectors.<BR/><BR/>Afghanistan is not Iraq: there are too many outside actors to cope with via standard COIN as seen in Iraq. And as the population has a general understanding of the need of common government, but highly conflicting views of local power, bringing those local views to actually trust central government is something that has *not* been achieved since Alexander the Great.<BR/><BR/>I ripped a page from his book on 'How to Deal With Central Asia': use small forces, demonstrate better capability in terms the locals understand, increase external trade, win friends, solidify power, and remove external threats. That is, in essence, what I have laid out - the type of plan of Alexander the Great.<BR/><BR/>I do NOT rely on large forces as they have demonstrably NOT worked for any major Nation of its era: Persia, Britain, Soviets. That fails. So does standard COIN as all of Central Asia needs to be addressed as part of it. Therefore, like Alexander, it is time to give the region something better to do than fight with each other incessantly and fund local warfare groups. Thus, the local warfare groups must be eliminated in a style that the locals understand, just as Alexander demonstrated his troops when he went through. There are no exact analogs, of course, but the same trends can be followed and give a highly profitable strategic position that just might start a road to a lasting regional change.<BR/><BR/>You cannot win in Afghanistan without that wider view.<BR/><BR/>Alexander proved that point.<BR/><BR/>We had best learn from him and not bother with the 'modern' ideas of large forces - they fail. COIN as practiced in Iraq will fail due to the fact there are a number of ethnic groups that see themselves as EQUALLY Afghan and their ethnic alignment (Pashtun, Uzbeck, etc.). That was not the case in Iraq (ex. the numerous Yon, Roggio, and others who interviewed people in Iraq who cited they were Iraqis first, ethnic second, religious third) and we must understand those differences, or any COIN plan will fail without that Nation based understanding.<BR/><BR/>Each vector must be taken and addressed and then common themes found amongst them and supported. Emphasize the common themes (mountain warfare, trade, law, utility of the Nation) and combine them with the logistical necessities we face. We can lose Afghanistan very quickly without that second logistical route: I see it as mandatory with an unstable Pakistan. From that logistical necessity we can start to tie everything else together... that is five years in the doing, at best. That is a path to victory... not 'not losing' which we have been doing for a few years now.<BR/><BR/>Follow the last person who was *successful* and how he did it and build on it. It would be the first time anyone has *tried that* in Afghanistan in a few thousand years...A Jacksonianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07607888697879327120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24766932.post-78954794684248321792009-02-10T22:21:00.000Z2009-02-10T22:21:00.000ZQuite apart from the rest of it, the very first se...Quite apart from the rest of it, the very first sentence (after "The following is...") would cause quite a few heads to burst.Peregrine Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03511962495322344119noreply@blogger.com